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# Tag Archives: Impact probability

## Impact probability,Leonid storm

Calculate the impact probability during a major Leonid storm which has a meteor flux of 8.63e-8 m-2s-1 and lasts for t hours. Do the probability analysis for a GEO spacecraft of size A m^2. What would the risk be during a normal Leonid storm, flux 4.69e-11 m-2s-1?

clc; clear all; N = [1 2 3 4 5 6 7]; %Number of impacts t = 2.5*3600; %[s] Fm = 8.63e-8; %Major Leonid storm meteor flux m-2s-1 Fn = 4.69e-11; %Normal Leonid storm meteor flux m-2s-1 A = 20; %m^2

## Probability of N impact

Major

```
Pm = (Fm*A*t).^N*exp(-Fm*A*t)./factorial(N);
Pmt= sum(Pm);
fprintf('Probability of impact %4.2d \n',Pmt);
```

Probability of impact 1.54e-002

Normal

```
Pn = (Fn*A*t).^N*exp(-Fn*A*t)./factorial(N);
Pnt= sum(Pn);
fprintf('Probability of impact %4.2d \n',Pnt);
```

Probability of impact 8.44e-006

figure(1); semilogy(N,Pm,'r*') hold on; semilogy(N,Pn,'.') xlabel('Number of impacts'); ylabel('Probability of N impact'); title('Impact probability,Leonid storm'); legend('Major','Normal');